Mathematics

Elementary Statistics and Probability
Alice Martinez

Math 150

 Math 150 Information: Winter 2019 Section 0237 Room: MBA 305   Time  MTWThF  8:00am-11:40am   Announcements/Info:         Ch 6 Quiz Friday: Ch 6 - Biased and unbiased estimators, Central Limit theorem - calculating probabilities with normal distribution and determining when and how to use the central limit theorem. No class Monday, 1/21.  Campus closed Exam 2 Info: 400 pts - Covers Ch 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8.1, 8.2.   This exam includes 8.1 & 8.2 Which we are covering Thursday and Friday 1/17-1/18 and are on HW 5.  It is imperative that you start on at LEAST that portion of HW 5 BEFORE the exam so you get the practice needed for the hypothesis test questions. Topics:  Ch 8 general hypothesis test concepts, testing proportions (60 pts),   Ch 4 probabilities (100 pts), Ch 5 probability distributions - especially binomial distributions (120+ pts), Ch 6 normality assessment, normal distributions and their applications (special emphasis on Central limit theorem), biased and unbiased estimators,  (110 pts)  Vocab and other concept questions sampling, data types, measures of center and dispersion are integrated into the topics mentioned or are given as vocabulary/concept questions, for a total of 400 points. Here are the front page instructions of the exam - Show all work.  Each part of a problem is worth 20 points unless otherwise stated. You may use:   2 pages (one side each) of notes and TI 83 or 84 calculator.  NO phones or other substitutes for calculators.  Be sure to show sufficient work for each problem, label solution and follow proper rounding rules. Your work is expected to be shown clearly and sufficiently.  Answers should be clear, complete and labeled.  FOR ALL HYPOTHESIS TESTS YOU MUST: A) State the Ho & H1. B) Write BOTH the test statistic and p-value (when available) from your calculator work WELL labeled on the page. C) State your decision:  “reject Ho”  or “fail to reject Ho” and WHY either via picture or words, including the numerics used.  NUMBERS MUST be included for this portion to earn credit D)  State the conclusion appropriately according to your decision. You can only earn credit for LEGIBLE work.  If I can’t read it no credit can be earned.  (Explaining afterwards what you wrote does NOT earn the credit back.) Be sure to write big enough and dark enough to be legible.  Faint, sloppy and tiny print is NOT legible. Unless otherwise stated, ASSUME ALL POPULATIONS ARE NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED AND SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WAS DONE. STATDISK INFO: Surveys:  Green  Buff  Yellow DATA Results: Green  Buff  Yellow Statdisk #1:  Due Jan 14  70 pts Statdisk #2: Due Jan 24   80 pts Statdisk #3:  Due Jan 31  100 pts `Homework = 40 points each     Quizzes = 20 points each` `Class Activities = 30 points       Exams = 400 points each` `Statdisk Workbooks = 180 pts (total combined)   Final Exam = 500 points ` Must earn 65% on final exam AND have sufficient points earned to pass the course.   Grades will be rounded up if Final exam is the higher of the two grades AND 80% of HW and CA have been completed.     Know this: 65% on final exam is NOT a passing grade and no exam scores will be replaced by non-passing scores.  Grades are earned by you the student according to the syllabus rubric which I adhere to in order to remain fair to all students taking the course.          Assignments:   Math 150 – HW Instructions for video portions of the assignments:  Take notes while watching the videos.  For some videos fill-in notes are provided (by clicking on the link and printing.  For the first few I have printed these out, but after that you will need to print your own using the link.)  For videos without fill-in notes provided you need to do your own notes or answer a response question.  If there are no instructions next to the video then take notes on the video and write the definition/description of the main concepts. Turn this in with your HW.  Be sure to write and underline or highlight the TITLE of each video above EACH of your video notes. HW Notes: For selected sections you will be reading the text and filling out notes and answering self-check questions.  Turn these in with the HW. Instructions for Vocabulary: Make a list of pertinent vocabulary for EVERY section of HW that you turn in. Do this for each NEW section covered in the HW.  Be sure to label what section EACH vocabulary is from.  (You do not need to redo vocabulary for sections already covered on previous HW, nor do you need to do vocabulary for topics we are not covering in the course.) General HW instructions available with tentative schedule by clicking on your section number at top of this page. They were also handed out on the first day of class. Be sure to read the general HW instructions to avoid losing points. HW printout   HW #3:               Due:  Tuesday, Jan. 15 Videos / Online learning:  (≈ 2 hrs)  - as a reminder all videos that are assigned need notes turned in for them, see general HW intstructions above. normalpdf, normcdf, invNorm (12:59)  Another Normal and InvNorm explanation of TI-84 Compound Probability (12:06) practice problems cc - Do two problems (i.e. work all the questions for two contingency tables) on the given webpage:  Copy each of the contingency tables that you use and write out your work.  This webpage has solutions, so check your work! 5-2 Notes (formerly 5-3):  5-2 part 1(9:27),  5-2 part 2(23:41)  - Fill-in Notes 5-2 Notes (formerly 5-3) Random Variables Optional Videos – nothing collected from these: Probability Song cc (This song shows the lyrics the entire time it plays and nothing else) Conditional Probability (song) -need cc - Enjoy Ch 4: Did an innocent mother get sent to jail due to incorrect probability calculations?(7:53) –fix cc- Take notes Vocab: (≈ 40 min)  Sections 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, 5.2, 6.5   Book problems: (≈1.5 hours) 3-2: 21, 37 (use CALCULATOR) 4-2: 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 17, 19                             4-3: 5, 7, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18 5-1: 1, 5, 7, 11, 21, 23, 25                     5-2: 5, 6, 7, 8 6-1: 13, 15, 25, 37  Reminder: Always draw/shade/label the curve for ALL Normal distribution problems. 6-2: 16, 17, 21, 23, 29  6-5: 15   HW #4 - Due Friday 1/18  Videos (≈ 1.5 hours): Binomial Distribution using TI-84 Statistical Estimation and Sampling Distributions (19:59) Ch 6: Central Limit Theorem (by JB Statistics) cc(13:13)  OR Ch 6:Central Limit Theorem(8:29) Watch ether of these two videos and write an explanation of what the Central Limit Theorem is and what it has to do with sampling distributions. (If it helps, watch BOTH videos.) You can also read these topics (Sampling distribution & Central Limit Theorem (CLT)) in your book if these videos don't help. Central Limit Theorem example problem cc (4:18) This video works on ONE problem using the CLT, follow along and write down your work and the appropriate picture and the solutions and any notes that will help you remember how to do this type of problem. Intro to Hypothesis Test (23:40)  Watch and take notes on the concepts of hypothesis testing and the steps. Vocab (≈ 40 min): Sections 6-3, 6-4, 8-1 Book problems: (≈4.5 hours) Ch 3 Cumulative Review (pg. 128): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Ch 4 Review (pg 178-179):  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 5-1: 9, 15, 17, 19     5-2:  9, 11, 15, 16, 17, 18, 27, 31 Ch 5 Quick Quiz (pg 220): 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 6-4: 5, 7 Ch 6 Review Exercises (pg 292-3): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 (type this data into statdisk and run the normality assessment.  Sketch or print out the results and discuss all three checks for normality.) 8-1:  5b, 6b, 7b, 8b   Study for Exam #2:  Wednesday, January 23  - Be sure to complete the 8.1 & 8.2 part of HW 5 (book work and videos) as part of your preparation BEFORE exam 2. The Ch 4 & 5 review problems in HW 5 might also be helpful preparation   Statdisk #2 Due: Thursday, January 24   HW #5:                      Due:   Friday, January 25 Videos: (≈ 1.5 hours): Test for Proportion TI-84 (11:17) T-Test using TI 84 (12:40) p-value (4:42) Type I and II errors (9:41) Hypothesis Test for difference of proportions (7:24) X-square GOF and Test for Indep. (14:08) – Watch & takes notes on the part about GOF test.  You can skip the test for independence part of the video. Choosing the right Statistical Test (9:32) Optional videos: Hypothesis Test Requirements (song), Vocab (≈ 40 min): Sections 8-2, 8-3, 9-1, 11-1 Book problems: (≈ 5 hours) For all hypothesis tests, you MUST write out Ho and H1 and then draw a picture of the distribution curve and shaded area (left, right, two-tailed).  Then, draw the information on the graph that shows you how you came to your conclusion. Finally, state your conclusion including the appropriate interpretation of your conclusion (i.e.  go through all the steps you learned to do in class) Ch 4 Quick Quiz (pg 178):  1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Ch 5 cumulative Review (pg 221-222): 1(all except i), 3, 4, 5, 6 6-2: 31 6-4: 9, 10, 11 8-1:  25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 31  For ALL of these start by writing Ho and H1, then perform the stated tasks. 8-2:  5, 8, 9, 13, 29, 30 8-3:  1, 9, 11, 13, 21 9-1: 5, 7, 9 11-1: 3, 5, 7, 10

Course Material:

Elementary Statistics by Triola  Elementary Statistics by Triola.  (978-1-323-57817-9 Third California Edition or 13th general edition)  This is a NEW edition of the textbook from last semester, so do NOT purchase a used book from a student from previous semesters.

*TI-84 Plus (TI 86 and TI 89 not allowed. There will be no sharing of calculators during exams, nor substitution via other types of calculators, your calculator must ONLY be a calculator and have no internet access options. You must have this calculator to perform operations in class and to practice the work at home to become proficient. See me if you need help getting a calculator).

*2 Large Blue Exam books for Class Activity Work.

*  Handy-Dandy Pullout Chart - (Click on your book: click on Formula & Table Card)  If you print this out you can use it for tests and quizzes.  It has all the major formulas and charts.

Optional materials:  TI-84 user help: http://mathbits.com/mathbits/TISection/Openpage.htm.

Optional text:  Student’s Solutions Manual for Elementary Statistics by Triola

Calculator Help:

Class Lecture & HW fill-in notes (updated 2018):

Projects:

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Online Resources:

Fun Statistics Songs:

Interesting Statistics Videos:

Interactive Programs:

In the News:

Training Videos:

Documentaries:

Data/Statistics:

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